By now most of the Internet is aware of the rumored Apple Tablet computer, which may or may not be announced on January 26th (or was it the 27th) at an event at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, to which nobody has actually been invited yet (update: the event is a go!). The tablet may or may not have a 10″ LCD (or OLED) display, might include a webcam, may run iPhone applications, and could possibly feature an advanced and “surprising” gesture-based user interface. Maybe.
If I was to sum up all of what we really know about this tablet device, I could do it in two words: “diddly-squat” (or alternatively “absolutely nothing” – take your pick).
Still, there are some strong indicators that an Apple Tablet exists. We know that Apple has developed post-Newton tablet computing devices. In June 2004, Steve Jobs himself admitted that Apple had worked on an Apple PDA but canned the product just before bringing it to market because he wasn’t satisfied with the device.
What happened to that all that tablet / PDA technology? It’s safe to assume that it was rolled into the iPhone, which was announced in January 2009. So why release a tablet now? I think there are several factors influencing Apple’s decision, that will combine to make any Apple Tablet device a success:
The prevalance of netbook computers
Ever since the first netbooks were introduced, analysts have been hounding Apple to release a Mac netbook. Until now, Apple has ignored and/or downplayed the netbook market. With netbooks being priced so low, the only way you can make a profit is by volume – and historically Apple has preferred higher margins to higher volumes (although, when it manages to do both, you get an iPod / iPhone effect!). Also, netbooks tend to be underpowered compared to their laptop brethren (I know, I have 3). For Apple, computing is all about the user experience, and running OS X on a slow processor with limited graphics does not make for a good user experience (OS X runs on my Vaio P for instance, but is painful to use).
By releasing a tablet device, Apple could compete with the netbook market on its own terms, by offering a complete alternative as opposed to just another netbook variant. The uniqueness of the tablet and its user interface will also allow Apple to charge the higher premiums that they are used to, differentiating the tablet from cheaper, “inferior” netbooks.
The army of iPhone/iPod developers and owners
In 2004 when the Apple PDA was shelved, the mobile computing landscape looked very different than it does today. Apple was enjoying success from its iPod line, but it was a closed environment. The only people that wrote iPod software were Apple engineers. Similarly, Objective-C and Apple’s Cocoa development environment were only really known to Macintosh software developers.
Today, there are tens of thousands of developers writing applications for the iPhone and iPod – developers who, in 2004, had never touched a Macintosh. But thanks to the iPhone’s popularity, any iPhone programmer can sit down and hammer out an Objective-C application for both mobile phones and desktops! That’s a huge benefit to the Apple platform. Even if a new Apple Tablet device won’t run iPhone apps natively, you can be sure that it will use Objective-C and some variant of the Cocoa APIs, flattening the learning curve for existing developers.
Let’s not forget those users too. Thanks to the iPhone and iPod, here in 2010 there exists a much larger base of loyal Apple users than there was in 2004. Ask any Apple user – once they’ve bought into the platform they’ve bought in for life. The first Mac is the tough sell, the second is much easier. iPhone users looking for a portable computing device are naturally going to gravitate towards an Apple product, if the product is compelling, which leads me into my 3rd and 4th points:
If a tablet exists, Steve Jobs and Jonathan Ive designed it. Properly.
That’s perhaps a little unfair to Jonathan Ive, who would have done most of the designing. But you can bet that Steve Jobs was involved in the process. Say what you will about Apple hardware, but it’s difficult to deny that its beautifully-designed. It’s lust-worthy stuff. But I’m not just talking hardware here.
Image via Wikipedia
Apple didn’t invent the Tablet PC, something that Paul Thurrott of the Windows Supersite tried to remind everyone about in a blog post last week. Unfortunately, Mr. Thurrott forgot that Microsoft didn’t invent the Tablet PC either – that award goes to GRiD Systems and their 1989 GRiDpad. But one mistake that Microsoft and most other tablet developers have made over the years is to try and retrofit a desktop operating system to run on a tablet device. I speak from personal experience on this – In early 2000 I was employed as an embedded developer, working on a variety of prototype web tablets and we kept trying to shoehorn desktop environments onto the tablets with little success.
Desktop operating systems like Windows XP and OS X are designed to be used with a keyboard and pointing device. The little close-window buttons in Windows XP titlebars are easy to click with a mouse, but less so when using a fingertip. Dragging scroll bars makes sense with a mouse, but the same gesture with a stylus feels wrong.
Microsoft has never understood this. Look at their Windows CE / Mobile devices and you’ll see the same user interface elements there as you do in Windows XP. Sure, it’s consistent – but does user interface consistency make sense when the underlying hardware platforms aren’t consistent themselves?
If Apple does release a tablet, you can be sure that they’ve learned from Microsoft’s mistakes. The Apple Tablet won’t run a desktop version of OS X. And it won’t run a scaled-up iPhone user interface either. The iPhone UI is designed for a small screen-size, not the rumored 10″ Tablet display. While I’m sure that the Tablet will sport an onscreen keyboard, it won’t be the primary method of input (imagine trying to hold the tablet with one-hand and type with the other). Rumor is that the Tablet will have a “surprising” method of input, and that’s one rumor that I lend a lot of credence to.
Steve Jobs hates product duplication
A big deal has been made about use cases for the Apple Tablet. Some say it’s just “a big iPhone”. Others think it’s just a Kindle competitor, and more than a few people wonder “why a tablet at all?”. I believe that if the Tablet exists, than Apple has put a great deal of thought into how it will be used, and what they’ve come up with is a “game-changer”. While it may duplicate some of the functionality, the Tablet won’t be just a big iPhone. Why? Because history shows that Steve Jobs hates product and featureset duplication.
- Image via Wikipedia
Apple’s product lines were a mess in the 1990s – multiple models with little variation across each line. Consumers who wanted to buy a Mac were confused by the overlapping lines and featuresets. When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, one of the first things he did was to simplify Apple’s offerings into pro and consumer lineups.
Cut to today, and the pro/consumer differentiation still exists (iMacs and Macbooks at the consumer level, Macbook Pros and Mac Pros at the pro level) with little overlap between the lines, with one exception: The 13″ Macbook (plastic) is extremely similar to the 13″ Macbook Pro (aluminum). Aside from a slightly faster processor, aluminum chassis and backlit keyboard, there isn’t much different about the two computers.
I agree with John Gruber from Daring Fireball – who believes that the Tablet is going to be Apple’s attempt at redefining computing, and will eventually replace the low-end MacBook as a small, relatively cheap, portable way of accessing the Internet and your personal media. An iPhone isn’t capable of doing this, which is why I think the Tablet will be much more than just “an iPhone on steroids”.
Conclusion
There are a number of other factors in Apple’s favor that lead me to believe the Tablet won’t fail, and will in fact succeed brilliantly: The iTunes store with it’s huge media and application library. Apple’s experience with multi-touch and alternative user interfaces, including their acquisition of FingerWorks several years ago. And those are just for starters.
But in the end, it comes down to this: Apple is a smart innovator. Since Steve Jobs’ return, Apple rarely dips its toes into markets that it doesn’t do well in. Apple either defines the market, as they did with the original iPod, or they turn an established market on its end, as the iPhone did with the mobile phone industry.
Given that Tablet PCs have been tried before numerous times, then Apple must believe that they’ve got something really compelling – something that nobody else has done before. Otherwise, they just wouldn’t bother in the first place.
I’m looking forward to finding out just what that something is later this month. That is, if the Apple Tablet rumors were true in the first place.
Mike is a former sysadmin and embedded developer, who worked on several prototype tablet devices way back in the dot-com era. He's also a non-practicing physicist and a big fan of anything resembling a tablet computer (or a telescope).
One area where I still think Apple could miss a trick: extensibility. Yes, the iPhone has the app store – but so much of what apps are allowed to do is truncated and locked down.
While we accept that in a phone – grudgingly – for now – we’ve grown to expect the ability to enhance and extend our computer experience. On the Mac, even the simplest add-ons like Default Folder X and TextExpander have dramatically improved the way I work. Mail.app enhancements and Safari plugins add functionality that many (or even most) users might not need, but that make my life easier. And there are other programs and utilities that extend or combine the features of existing programs and system functions in a more sophisticated way.
I’m excited about the Apple tablet. But if it really is “just” a giant iPhone, or a Kindle in funky black, then I’m quickly going to be frustrated – and looking at other options.
That’s a great point Rob. Apple’s original reason for locking down iPhone apps was to prevent “misuse of a provider’s cellular network”.
If the tablet only has WiFi, then the previous argument doesn’t apply and the Tablet should have an open development environment like the Mac does. If on the other hand the tablet has 3G connectivity as some reports indicate, then I foresee the same restricted development process that the iPhone has.
That would be a shame. Even worse: the Tablet doesn’t have 3G and still has a restricted environment.
Looks like we’ll find out next week.
What if Apple compromised and allowed apps like Default Folder X (not sure there will be folders!) and TextExpander to be sold via the Tablet App Store?
With the recent history of the Iphone, i won’t be going out to buy the first tablet. I’m gonna wait for the second variation and the price to drop. Knowing the history of Apple that won’t be too long. I’d luv to know many people had buyers guilt after going to buy the first version